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Hey, welcome to my basketball rankings site, where I do some math and try to tell you which teams are best. Here’s a key to tell you what the different things in the college basketball spreadsheet mean. Rank: Power ranking… Read More »Key

Looks like I’m finally getting around to publishing college basketball rankings again, and it feels good, like there was a small part of me lost amid offensive efficiencies and three point percentages and margins of victory. Not too much has… Read More »New Year, New Me

About a month ago I introduced EM, or expected margin into my rankings, and began to use that as my primary ranking tool. I describe EM in a previous blog post, but the short version is that EM is derived… Read More »Introducing Adjusted EM: my most accurate metric yet

Not how they do now. There are a number of things wrong with the way the NCAA selection committee currently goes about deciding the 68 lucky teams to participate in March Madness, but the most glaring is its lack of… Read More »How should the NCAA decide who makes the tournament?

I have a brief blurb on my sidebar highlighting how to use EM as a proxy for expected margin of a game, but I though I’d be a little bit more thorough in a blog post. As I’ve explained, EM… Read More »EM to predict game margin

I have updated my rankings to included an expected margin number alongside the original rating, which is the result of a cumulative distribution function of the ratings vector. The old ratings are displayed under the CDF Rating heading and the… Read More »Introducing: Expected Margin (EM)

As I move toward making my model predictive, I’ve been tinkering with some of its elements to optimize for retrodictive power. A fun part of this is observing the biggest upsets of the year per my rankings. Here are the… Read More »This season’s biggest upsets

As of Week 9, I have made a significant change in the model. My model requires that the scores of game performances are adjusted for the number of games that teams have played. This is because the matrix operation that… Read More »I fixed a bug

Following West Virginia’s “upset” against Ohio State on Sunday, it is likely Gonzaga will be the unanimous #1 in this week’s AP Poll. And with a lackluster conference schedule, it is likely they will retain that spot for some time.… Read More »Gonzaga is probably not that good