Below you will find predictions for every scheduled game the rest of the 2020 season. Prediction is the predicted winning team, EM is the expected margin of victory of that team, and Probability is the likelihood they will win the game. Each game is listed twice in the table for sorting purposes. Predictions assume 70–possession games and home court advantage of +3.5 points.
Retrodictive accuracy is the percentage of games the current rankings would have predicted correctly, in the past. Predictive accuracy is the percentage of games my model predicts correctly before the game occurs. I don’t track this, but Wobus Sports and Mark Moog do (I especially like Moog’s graphic).
The predictions on this site generally perform well compared to other models. However, if you are looking to be more precise or are interested in betting on the point spread for college basketball, I urge you to check out my post on using EM to predict point spread, which divulges the specifics.
Asterisk denotes home team. Number in parentheses denotes rank.
Last updated 26 February 2020.
Retrodictive Accuracy: 76.8%
Predictive Accuracy: ~ 70%
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